ConflictDevelopingOn October 3 Al-Shabaab announced a pact with Hawadle elders at Mahaas. No Hawadle signatory has been named, the federal government has not answered, and on October 8 residents and Al-Shabaab fighters were shooting at each other in Tardo. Part 1 of 2: what was announced, what the text says, and what no one has confirmed.
By The Field | October 25, 2026 | 9 min read
AnalysisDevelopingThe land was already Al-Shabaab's before October 3. What the pact buys is the stand-down of the clan militia that helped drive it out of Hiiraan in 2022, and a template for other clans. Part 2 of 2: why the Hawadle would sign, what Al-Shabaab gains, what Mogadishu loses, and what would settle it.
By The Field | October 25, 2026 | 10 min read
GovernanceDevelopingThe ruling party's candidate won the state presidency on October 24, as in Galmudug. The Supreme Court had certified the House results, and no challenge was filed. The Hawadle grievances that dominated the buildup are unresolved.
By The Field | October 25, 2026 | 5 min read
AnalysisDevelopingA former student leader from the 1998 war argues that Ethiopia's grievance over the port of Assab is real, that a war would not give it a port it could keep, and that Eritrea should turn Assab into a deal while it still holds it.
By Assegid "AZ" Habtewold | October 24, 2026 | 11 min read
GovernanceDevelopingThe Salvation Forum calls Banadir's election illegal and the Future Council rejects the 2027 timetable. On October 22 former Prime Minister Roble and others congratulated Galmudug's new president. The president says the Supreme Court answers any complaint about the national vote. The opposition has not agreed on what it is objecting to.
By Ismail Abukar | October 24, 2026 | 10 min read
AnalysisSouth Africa classified gender-based violence and femicide as a national disaster, then set aside R5.1 billion. Most of it is for social workers, and under 4 percent is for the forensics and investigators who turn a body into a case.
By Nhlanhla Nkosi | October 24, 2026 | 6 min read
AnalysisNigeria's new election law makes threatening a voter a crime, but it says nothing about gender-based violence, and the author found no rule that polling units be accessible.
By Oluwabamise Abraham Fayemi | October 23, 2026 | 8 min read
AnalysisNigeria's first Ebola patient left Abuja for Switzerland on October 26. Fifty-three people are being traced, most from the hospital that treated her. The days between her first symptoms and her test, not the border, decide how far this goes, and no two official accounts agree on how many there were.
By Ismail Abukar | October 22, 2026 | 8 min read
AnalysisThe president's eldest son, now vice-president, would take over within 24 hours if his father died or resigned. A French court has convicted him of money laundering.
By Ismail Abukar | October 19, 2026 | 10 min read
GovernanceDevelopingOn October 15 Somalia's president said there would be no talks with the opposition on how the vote works. Ten days later he said the door to dialogue was always open, and invited his rivals to a forum on his terms. The electoral commission has set the dates, parliament on April 15 and the president on May 15, 2027, and says it is independent. It needs the government for money, security and political support.
By Ismail Abukar | October 15, 2026 | 10 min read
AnalysisDevelopingA police sergeant shot a woman in a work van on October 9. A week of unrest brought a curfew, at least 188 arrests and talk of prosecuting children from 12. On October 24 the police-complaints body asked the public for video of the shooting. That is where the answer will come from.
By Ismail Abukar | October 15, 2026 | 9 min read
SecurityDevelopingAt a national conference in Mogadishu, Judge Hassan Ali Nur Shuute described how Al-Shabaab killed his father to stop the trial of a man who once drove for the group's spokesman, over the 2017 Zoobe bombing. Parts of his account match earlier reports. What the killers intended rests on his word.
By Abdulkadir Isse | October 14, 2026 | 4 min read
AnalysisA kidnapping in Imo state shows what runs these wars: ransoms, gold sales and taxes taken at gunpoint, not imported weapons. Africa has about four in ten of the world's conflicts and about four in a hundred of its recorded arms imports.
By Ismail Abukar | October 12, 2026 | 9 min read
AnalysisDevelopingEthiopia told the UN Security Council that Eritrea invaded up to 60 km into Tigray. Independent monitors found a smaller crossing near Zalambessa and Ethiopian drone strikes, and Ethiopian forces have since pulled back from the border towns. Why would Asmara and the TPLF be on one side, and what could have been done differently?
By Ismail Abukar | October 12, 2026 | 9 min read
SecurityDevelopingPolice said 20 kidnapped youth-corps graduates in Imo State were rescued on October 7. On October 22 a State Security Service investigator told a High Court they were freed after the kidnappers' ransom was paid. Families say they paid, the police commissioner says he knew of none, and three men are on trial.
By Ismail Abukar | October 12, 2026 | 9 min read
AnalysisOne brother was replaced in July 2025. For the other two, I found no decree or report that confirms them in place or removes them, and the presidency has not answered the criticism.
By Ismail Abukar | October 11, 2026 | 9 min read
AnalysisDevelopingNothing I found links the summit to the troop reports. But the declaration has no penalty and no test, the follow-up mechanism has produced no public meeting, and sources still disagree on whether Eritrean forces are in Tigray.
By Ismail Abukar | October 9, 2026 | 10 min read
HealthDevelopingA man who, the health ministry says, had lived in Congo for seven years landed in Nairobi on October 3 and was dead by Monday night. Nine people in Kenya have now been infected, two have died, and all belong to a cluster around him. Nobody has explained how he got through screening.
By The Field | October 6, 2026 | 7 min read
ConflictDevelopingCongo's Ebola numbers come from surveillance workers who say they have missed pay, in towns where a ruling-party official was beaten to death, his party says, for defending the response. The September dip in cases did not last, and Africa CDC says $700 million of the aid paid out cannot be traced.
By Ismail Abukar | October 4, 2026 | 7 min read
AnalysisEleven months after Samia Suluhu Hassan named her daughter and son-in-law to her cabinet, State House has not explained the choice. This week the opposition leader began a hunger strike and a second Chadema official was charged with treason.
By Ismail Abukar | October 4, 2026 | 8 min read
GovernanceDevelopingThe military said security conditions were not in place for the ousted president to fly home on October 4. A five-year residency rule and a postponed election do the same work by other means, and none of the three has been tested in a court.
By The Field | October 3, 2026 | 8 min read
AnalysisTigrayans fight Tigrayans, young people are fleeing, and the neighbours that once argued over a dam are now circling a war. Somalia hosts Ethiopian refugees, shares a border with Al-Shabaab territory and sits at the centre of a diplomatic scramble. I saw this kind of corridor diplomacy at the African Union, and it does not tell the public what is at stake.
By Ismail Abukar | October 2, 2026 | 9 min read
GovernanceKiir ended the power-sharing deal on September 22, then sacked a minister who had survived it. His main rival is on trial in a court that adjourned for lack of generator fuel, the travel of officials is restricted, and the vote is set for December 22.
By The Field | October 1, 2026 | 8 min read
GovernanceDevelopingSomalia's Supreme Court threw out Galmudug's July 30 vote. On September 30 the state voted again, run by the same commission, from the same register, without the party that won the case.
By Ismail Abukar | September 30, 2026 | 8 min read
GovernanceDevelopingOf three state presidents Villa Somalia pressed, one fled, one stepped aside after talks, and one agreed to run on the ruling party's ticket. On October 24 that president was re-elected, 81 votes to 13, while his own vice president said the vote did not bind Hiiraan. Galmudug's court case is a checklist, and Hirshabelle's record against it is mixed.
By The Field | September 30, 2026 | 7 min read