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ConflictDeveloping

A Hawadle Peace With No Hawadle Name on It

On October 3 Al-Shabaab announced a pact with Hawadle elders at Mahaas. No Hawadle signatory has been named, the federal government has not answered, and on October 8 residents and Al-Shabaab fighters were shooting at each other in Tardo. Part 1 of 2: what was announced, what the text says, and what no one has confirmed.

By The Field  |  October 25, 2026  |  9 min read
AnalysisDeveloping

Al-Shabaab Did Not Need Mahaas. It Needed the Hawadle to Stand Down

The land was already Al-Shabaab's before October 3. What the pact buys is the stand-down of the clan militia that helped drive it out of Hiiraan in 2022, and a template for other clans. Part 2 of 2: why the Hawadle would sign, what Al-Shabaab gains, what Mogadishu loses, and what would settle it.

By The Field  |  October 25, 2026  |  10 min read
GovernanceDeveloping

An 81-to-13 Win Does Not Settle Hirshabelle's Hawadle Dispute

The ruling party's candidate won the state presidency on October 24, as in Galmudug. The Supreme Court had certified the House results, and no challenge was filed. The Hawadle grievances that dominated the buildup are unresolved.

By The Field  |  October 25, 2026  |  5 min read
AnalysisDeveloping

Ethiopia Has a Real Grievance Over Assab. A War Would Not Fix It.

A former student leader from the 1998 war argues that Ethiopia's grievance over the port of Assab is real, that a war would not give it a port it could keep, and that Eritrea should turn Assab into a deal while it still holds it.

By Assegid "AZ" Habtewold  |  October 24, 2026  |  11 min read
GovernanceDeveloping

Somalia's Opposition Is Fighting Over the Referee, Not the Vote

The Salvation Forum calls Banadir's election illegal and the Future Council rejects the 2027 timetable. On October 22 former Prime Minister Roble and others congratulated Galmudug's new president. The president says the Supreme Court answers any complaint about the national vote. The opposition has not agreed on what it is objecting to.

By Ismail Abukar  |  October 24, 2026  |  10 min read
Analysis

Who Gets to Vote Safely in Nigeria's January Election?

Nigeria's new election law makes threatening a voter a crime, but it says nothing about gender-based violence, and the author found no rule that polling units be accessible.

By Oluwabamise Abraham Fayemi  |  October 23, 2026  |  8 min read
GovernanceDeveloping

Somalia's Election Commission Is Independent on Paper, Dependent on the Government in Practice

On October 15 Somalia's president said there would be no talks with the opposition on how the vote works. Ten days later he said the door to dialogue was always open, and invited his rivals to a forum on his terms. The electoral commission has set the dates, parliament on April 15 and the president on May 15, 2027, and says it is independent. It needs the government for money, security and political support.

By Ismail Abukar  |  October 15, 2026  |  10 min read
AnalysisDeveloping

Mauritius Charged Its Sergeant Within Days. The Witness Appeal Came Two Weeks Later

A police sergeant shot a woman in a work van on October 9. A week of unrest brought a curfew, at least 188 arrests and talk of prosecuting children from 12. On October 24 the police-complaints body asked the public for video of the shooting. That is where the answer will come from.

By Ismail Abukar  |  October 15, 2026  |  9 min read
SecurityDeveloping

The Inside War: How Al-Shabaab Weaponizes Intimidation to Shield Key Operatives

At a national conference in Mogadishu, Judge Hassan Ali Nur Shuute described how Al-Shabaab killed his father to stop the trial of a man who once drove for the group's spokesman, over the 2017 Zoobe bombing. Parts of his account match earlier reports. What the killers intended rests on his word.

By Abdulkadir Isse  |  October 14, 2026  |  4 min read
AnalysisDeveloping

The Eritrean Troops Accusation Is Plausible, Unproven, and Already Shaping a War

Ethiopia told the UN Security Council that Eritrea invaded up to 60 km into Tigray. Independent monitors found a smaller crossing near Zalambessa and Ethiopian drone strikes, and Ethiopian forces have since pulled back from the border towns. Why would Asmara and the TPLF be on one side, and what could have been done differently?

By Ismail Abukar  |  October 12, 2026  |  9 min read
SecurityDeveloping

"Rescued" Was the Police Word. A State Security Witness Told a Court That a Ransom Was Paid

Police said 20 kidnapped youth-corps graduates in Imo State were rescued on October 7. On October 22 a State Security Service investigator told a High Court they were freed after the kidnappers' ransom was paid. Families say they paid, the police commissioner says he knew of none, and three men are on trial.

By Ismail Abukar  |  October 12, 2026  |  9 min read
ConflictDeveloping

“No Money, No Data”: Congo’s Ebola Counts Depend on Workers Who Say They Are Unpaid

Congo's Ebola numbers come from surveillance workers who say they have missed pay, in towns where a ruling-party official was beaten to death, his party says, for defending the response. The September dip in cases did not last, and Africa CDC says $700 million of the aid paid out cannot be traced.

By Ismail Abukar  |  October 4, 2026  |  7 min read
Analysis

Ethiopia's War Is Not Staying in Ethiopia, and Somalia Stands to Pay for It

Tigrayans fight Tigrayans, young people are fleeing, and the neighbours that once argued over a dam are now circling a war. Somalia hosts Ethiopian refugees, shares a border with Al-Shabaab territory and sits at the centre of a diplomatic scramble. I saw this kind of corridor diplomacy at the African Union, and it does not tell the public what is at stake.

By Ismail Abukar  |  October 2, 2026  |  9 min read
GovernanceDeveloping

Galmudug's Court Case Is a Checklist. Hirshabelle's Election Only Partly Passes It

Of three state presidents Villa Somalia pressed, one fled, one stepped aside after talks, and one agreed to run on the ruling party's ticket. On October 24 that president was re-elected, 81 votes to 13, while his own vice president said the vote did not bind Hiiraan. Galmudug's court case is a checklist, and Hirshabelle's record against it is mixed.

By The Field  |  September 30, 2026  |  7 min read

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