Last updated Friday, 30 October, 6:20 am in Honolulu (12:20 pm EDT). Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. Until then we update this page when something changes. On election night it goes live, with an update every hour.
Senate: the races that decide control
Republicans hold 53 of 100 seats; Democrats need a net gain of four. Each dot is a race, coloured by the candidate that betting markets or forecasters favour. A ringed dot is a seat the other party holds now.
- GeorgiaMike Collins (R) v Jon Ossoff (D)
Ossoff (D) favoured, 96% - North CarolinaMichael Whatley (R) v Roy Cooper (D)
Cooper (D) favoured, 97% - AlaskaDan Sullivan (R) v Mary Peltola (D)
Peltola (D) favoured, 68% - MichiganMike Rogers (R) v Abdul El-Sayed (D)
El-Sayed (D) favoured, 76% - TexasKen Paxton (R) v James Talarico (D)
Talarico (D) favoured, 70% - MaineSusan Collins (R) v Troy Jackson (D)
Jackson (D) favoured, 64% - OhioJon Husted (R) v Sherrod Brown (D)
Brown (D) favoured, 70% - MinnesotaMichele Tafoya (R) v Peggy Flanagan (D)
Flanagan (D) favoured, 90% - New HampshireJohn Sununu (R) v Chris Pappas (D)
Pappas (D) favoured, 91% - IowaAshley Hinson (R) v Josh Turek (D)
Hinson (R) favoured, 53% - KansasRoger Marshall (R) v Adam Hamilton (D)
Marshall (R) favoured, 51%
- Democrat favoured
- Republican favoured
- Seat the other party holds now
- Close: under 60 percent
Democrats are favoured in 5 seats Republicans hold now (North Carolina, Alaska, Texas, Maine, Ohio) and need a net gain of four. If every favourite in these races won and nothing else changed, Democrats would hold 52 seats. That is arithmetic, not a forecast: each favourite is a long way from certain.
The Senate today: 100 seats
- Democrats and allies: 47
- Republicans: 53
Democrats hold 45 seats and two independents vote with them, so 47. Republicans hold 53. A majority is 51, and the vice president breaks a 50-50 tie for the Republicans.
Sources: Kalshi prices via DeFi Rate, October 30 · Cook Political Report Senate ratings, October 20
House: 435 seats, as the Cook Political Report rates them
- Democrats favoured: 220
- Toss-up: 17
- Republicans favoured: 198
Each dot is a seat. The Cook Political Report, a well-known non-partisan US election forecaster, rates every seat from Solid to Toss-up. It favours Democrats in 220 (186 Solid, 18 Likely and 16 Lean Democratic), two more than the 218 needed for control, and counts 17 toss-ups. The other 198 favour Republicans. Other outlets tally Cook's categories a seat or two differently. Cook moved a dozen more seats on October 30; the totals above are from its October 23 tally, and we will update them once Cook's new count is confirmed.
The 17 toss-ups (Cook, October 23)
Each code is a state and a district number: CA-22 is California's 22nd district. (R) means a Republican holds the seat now and (D) a Democrat. Open means the current member is not running again.
- CA-22 Valadao (R)
- IA-02 open, R-held
- KY-06 open, R-held
- MI-04 Huizenga (R)
- MI-07 Barrett (R)
- MI-10 open, R-held
- MT-01 open, R-held
- NY-17 Lawler (R)
- OH-07 Miller (R)
- PA-08 Bresnahan (R)
- TX-15 De La Cruz (R)
- VA-01 Wittman (R)
- FL-14 Castor (D)
- FL-22 open, D-held
- NC-01 Davis (D)
- OH-09 Kaptur (D)
- TX-35 open, D-held
House seats to watch
Cook sorts races from most to least certain: Solid, Likely, Lean, Toss-up. Lean Democratic means Democrats are slightly ahead, but not by enough to be sure.
- PA-08 Bresnahan (R): Republican-held, moved from Toss-up to Lean Democratic on October 30
- PA-01 Fitzpatrick (R): Republican-held, moved from Lean Republican to Toss-up on October 30
- CO-05 Crank (R): Republican-held, moved from Lean Republican to Toss-up on October 30
- SC-01 Open seat: Moved from Lean Republican to Toss-up on October 30
- AZ-06 Ciscomani (R): Republican-held, now Lean Democratic
- VA-02 Kiggans (R): Republican-held, now Lean Democratic
- CO-08 Evans (R): Republican-held, now Lean Democratic
- WI-03 Van Orden (R): Republican-held, now Lean Democratic
Sources: Cook Political Report House ratings, October 23 · NPR on the House races, October 29 · Yahoo News on Cook's October 30 changes · Daily Caller on Cook's changes
The hot seats, head to head
These eleven Senate races decide who controls the chamber. In each box, the two candidates are named at the top: red is the Republican and blue is the Democrat. The first bar shows who is ahead in the polls today. The second shows who betting markets expect to win on November 3. The last line says in plain words whether the two agree. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the Senate.
A poll asks a sample of voters who they will pick; the grey gap in a poll bar is people who are undecided or backing someone else. A betting market is a website where people bet real money on the result, so its prices show what traders expect, not what is certain. A seat is held by the party whose senator has it now. In an open seat the current senator is not running again.
Who is likely to control Congress
The House of Representatives
The Senate
Senate hot seats, closest first
KansasHeld by Republicans now
The two disagree: Adam Hamilton (D) leads the polls by 0.2 points, but betting markets favour Roger Marshall (R).
IowaHeld by Republicans now, senator not running
Both point the same way: Ashley Hinson (R) leads the polls by 0.5 points and is favoured by betting markets.
MaineHeld by Republicans now
Both point the same way: Troy Jackson (D) leads the polls by 1.4 points and is favoured by betting markets.
AlaskaHeld by Republicans now
Both point the same way: Mary Peltola (D) leads the polls by 1.2 points and is favoured by betting markets.
OhioHeld by Republicans now, special election
Both point the same way: Sherrod Brown (D) leads the polls by 2.6 points and is favoured by betting markets.
TexasHeld by Republicans now
Both point the same way: James Talarico (D) leads the polls by 2.1 points and is favoured by betting markets.
MichiganHeld by Democrats now, senator not running
Both point the same way: Abdul El-Sayed (D) leads the polls by 3.2 points and is favoured by betting markets.
MinnesotaHeld by Democrats now, senator not running
Both point the same way: Peggy Flanagan (D) leads the polls by 5.1 points and is favoured by betting markets.
New HampshireHeld by Democrats now, senator not running
Both point the same way: Chris Pappas (D) leads the polls by 6.7 points and is favoured by betting markets.
GeorgiaHeld by Democrats now
Both point the same way: Jon Ossoff (D) leads the polls by 8.2 points and is favoured by betting markets.
North CarolinaHeld by Republicans now, senator not running
Both point the same way: Roy Cooper (D) leads the polls by 10.7 points and is favoured by betting markets.
Polls: RealClearPolitics averages of recent polls, with the dates covered. The grey gap in a poll bar is voters who said undecided or named someone else. Betting odds: Kalshi prices early on October 30 (US Eastern time), rounded so the two sides add to 100. Odds are bets, not forecasts or polls, and a 70 percent favourite still loses about three times in ten. House seat-by-seat polls are too thin to show fairly, so the House panel above shows Cook's ratings and the 17 toss-ups instead.
Sources: RealClearPolitics Senate poll averages, to October 28 · Kalshi prices via DeFi Rate, October 30 · Chamber odds (Kalshi and Polymarket) via DeFi Rate, October 30
Board as of Friday, 30 October, 6:20 am in Honolulu (12:20 pm EDT).
The election in plain terms
What is on the ballot
All 435 House seats, 35 of 100 Senate seats and 36 governorships. House members serve two-year terms, so every seat is up each time. Senators serve six years, so about a third are up. A midterm falls halfway through a president's four-year term, which is why it is often treated as a verdict on how the president is doing.
Sources: Rio Times explainer
What "control" means
A party controls a chamber when it has a majority of the seats. In the House that is 218 of 435. In the Senate it is 51 of 100, because in a 50-50 tie the vice president, JD Vance, casts the deciding vote for the Republicans.
Sources: Rio Times explainer
Where the parties stand now
House: 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent and two vacant seats. Senate: 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, counting two independents who vote with the Democrats. So Democrats need four more seats in the House and a net gain of four in the Senate, which means four more seats than they hold now after subtracting any they lose.
Sources: Rio Times explainer
How to read the ratings
Race-rating services such as the Cook Political Report, which is nonpartisan, put each race in a box. Solid means safe. Likely means one party is a clear favourite and the race is not competitive yet, though it could become so. Lean means the race is competitive but one party is ahead. Toss-up means either party has a good chance of winning. The toss-ups are the real fight.
What forecasters and polls say
Cook favours Democrats in 220 House seats, two more than they need, and rates 17 as toss-ups. In the Senate it rates seven races as toss-ups, six of them in Republican-held seats. The Silver Bulletin (a polling average run by statistician Nate Silver) had Democrats ahead by 8.9 points in national polls on October 30, just below its 9.2-point high. National polls measure the whole country, not individual seats.
Sources: Cook Political Report House ratings, October 23 · Cook Political Report Senate ratings, October 20 · Silver Bulletin generic ballot average, October 28 · Silver Bulletin generic ballot average, October 30
What betting markets say
On October 30 the betting markets Kalshi and Polymarket gave Democrats about 93 percent for the House, and about 68 percent for the Senate. These are bets, not polls or forecasts, and they can be wrong. A 68 percent favourite still loses about one time in three.
Sources: Kalshi and Polymarket odds via DeFi Rate, October 30
The Senate: four seats decide it
Republicans hold 53 seats and Democrats 47, so Democrats need a net gain of four to reach 51. Of the 35 seats up, Republicans defend 22 and Democrats 13. Most are safe for the party that holds them. These are the ones that are not. An open seat has no incumbent running. A special election fills a seat vacated mid-term. The polls and betting odds for each race are in the head-to-head bars at the top of this page.
Republican seats Democrats are trying to flip
North Carolina (open seat)
Roy Cooper (D), a former governor, against Michael Whatley (R). Cook rates it Likely Democratic, the likeliest flip on the map.
Maine
Troy Jackson (D) against Susan Collins (R). Cook rates it a toss-up. Maine can use ranked-choice counting, in which voters rank candidates and weaker ones are dropped round by round, which can slow the final result.
Ohio (special election)
Sherrod Brown (D) against Jon Husted (R), who holds the seat now. Cook rates it a toss-up.
Texas
James Talarico (D) against Ken Paxton (R), who beat Senator John Cornyn in the Republican runoff. Cook rates it a toss-up.
Alaska
Mary Peltola (D) against Senator Dan Sullivan (R). Cook rates it a toss-up. Alaska's polls close last, at 1 a.m. Eastern, and it also uses ranked-choice counting (explained under Maine).
Iowa (open seat)
Ashley Hinson (R) against Josh Turek (D). Cook rates it a toss-up.
Kansas
Senator Roger Marshall (R) against Adam Hamilton (D). Cook moved it from Lean Republican to toss-up on October 6.
Democratic seats Republicans are trying to flip
Michigan (open seat)
Abdul El-Sayed (D) against Mike Rogers (R). Cook rates it a toss-up, which makes it the Democrats' most exposed seat.
New Hampshire (open seat)
Chris Pappas (D) against John Sununu (R). Cook rates it Lean Democratic after moving it from toss-up on October 6.
Georgia
Senator Jon Ossoff (D) against Mike Collins (R). Cook rates it Likely Democratic. Georgia requires a majority to win, so a runoff on December 1 is possible if no one clears 50 percent.
Minnesota (open seat)
Peggy Flanagan (DFL, Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, the state's Democratic party) against Michele Tafoya (R). Cook rates it Lean Democratic, and the RealClearPolitics poll average had Flanagan ahead 47.8 to 42.7 on October 26.
Sources: Cook Political Report Senate ratings, October 20 · Rio Times explainer · 270toWin on Cook's Senate changes
How these seats could flip the Senate
Count from where the Senate stands today. This is arithmetic using the ratings above, not a forecast.
The Democratic path
Start at 47. North Carolina is the likeliest flip, which makes 48. They then need three more from the six Republican-held toss-ups (Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas), and they must hold every seat they have now. 48 plus 3 is 51, a majority.
If they lose Michigan
Michigan is the Democratic seat most likely to go the other way. If Republicans take it, the Democrats' count drops by one and they need four of the six Republican-held toss-ups instead of three.
The Republican path
Republicans keep the Senate if Democrats fall short of 51. A 50-50 tie is not enough for Democrats, because Vice President Vance breaks it for Republicans. If Republicans won all seven toss-ups, including Michigan, they would keep 53 seats even after losing North Carolina.
Sources: Reason on the Senate toss-ups, October 28 · Rio Times explainer
Why it may take days
If three or four of these races are within a point or two, control can hang on late counts in Alaska, on ranked-choice rounds in Maine and Alaska, and on a possible Georgia runoff on December 1. See "When will we know?" below.
Seat totals assume no other seat changes hands. Cook also rates South Carolina, held by Republican Lindsey Graham, Lean Republican, which is the next seat down the list and is not counted above. Other forecasters rate a few of these races differently from Cook.
The House: Democrats need four more seats
All 435 seats are up and a majority is 218. Republicans hold 218 now, Democrats 214, with one independent and two vacancies. Cook's ratings, updated October 23, favour Democrats in 220 seats and rate 17 as toss-ups. Another 30 Republican-leaning seats are rated Likely or Lean Republican. Even if Republicans won all 17 toss-ups, Democrats would still have 220 on Cook's numbers, so Republicans would need upsets in seats Cook now favours Democrats. Cook is one rater, and other outlets count a seat or two differently. The 17 toss-ups are listed in the House panel at the top of this page.
Republican seats that moved toward Democrats
On October 23 Cook moved Representatives Ciscomani (Arizona's 6th), Kiggans (Virginia's 2nd), Evans (Colorado's 8th) and Van Orden (Wisconsin's 3rd) to Lean Democratic. It moved Representative Boebert's Colorado 4th from Solid Republican to Lean Republican.
Democrats who hold seats Donald Trump carried
Representatives Adam Gray (California's 13th), Nellie Pou (New Jersey's 9th) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Washington's 3rd) hold districts that voted for Trump in 2024. Cook rates Gray's and Pou's seats Likely Democratic and Gluesenkamp Perez's Lean Democratic. NPR reports that Republicans have cut their ad reservations in those races, as they have in Nebraska's 2nd, where Republican Don Bacon is retiring and Cook rates the open seat Likely Democratic.
New maps in several states
Republicans redrew lines to add conservative voters to Democratic seats held by Marcy Kaptur (Ohio's 9th), Don Davis (North Carolina's 1st), Shomari Figures (Alabama's 2nd) and Darren Soto (Florida's 9th), and redrew Tennessee's 9th. Cook rates Kaptur's and Davis's seats toss-ups, Figures's Lean Republican and Soto's Likely Republican. Democrats redrew California districts held by Republicans. Cook now rates California's 1st and 6th (held by independent Kevin Kiley) Solid Democratic, the 48th (Issa's seat, open) Lean Democratic and Valadao's 22nd a toss-up.
Where the money is going
NPR found 70 districts where each party is spending at least six figures on ads in the final days. Michigan's 7th and North Carolina's 1st top the list at more than $12 million each, followed by Florida's 14th, 22nd and 25th, New York's 17th, and Iowa's 2nd and 3rd.
Sources: Cook Political Report House ratings, October 23 · NPR on the House races, October 29 · Daily Caller on Cook's changes
What changes if control flips
Both chambers must agree to pass any law and the federal budget. The president can veto a bill, and it takes two-thirds of both chambers to override that. Beyond that, each chamber has its own powers.
If Democrats win the House
They would decide which bills get a vote, chair the committees, issue subpoenas to the administration and refuse new money for the president's priorities. The House starts all tax bills and can impeach the president, cabinet officers or judges by a simple majority. It could not pass its own laws without the Senate and the president.
If Democrats win the Senate
They could stall the president's nominations. Only the Senate confirms cabinet members, federal judges and ambassadors, and it approves treaties by a two-thirds vote. Most bills also need 60 of 100 votes to get past a filibuster, a procedural block that forces a supermajority.
If Congress splits
With a Democratic House and a Republican Senate, neither side could pass a law alone, and the president could veto what reached the desk. Most of the change would be in oversight and in budget fights, not in new laws.
Sources: Rio Times explainer
When will we know?
Not on election night, for many races. How fast a state counts depends on whether officials may open and scan mailed ballots before Election Day, and on whether the state accepts ballots that arrive after it. Congress Countdown compiled the rules below from the National Conference of State Legislatures and Ballotpedia; check your state's election office for your own ballot.
Fast counters
Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Utah and several others scan mailed ballots before Election Day and need them in by Election Day, so most of their count is ready soon after the polls close.
Slower counters
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin may only start processing mail ballots on Election Day. Alabama, Alaska, Illinois, Mississippi, New Hampshire and West Virginia cannot count them until after the polls close.
Ballots that arrive late
On June 29 the Supreme Court ruled, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, that federal law does not stop a state from counting mail ballots postmarked by Election Day that arrive afterwards. Texas takes them through November 4, Nevada through November 7, California, New York and Oregon through November 10, and Washington through November 23, according to Congress Countdown. Those states' final totals can move for days.
Sources: The Source on the ruling · US Vote Foundation analysis
Close races
A close margin delays a call, and a very close one can trigger an automatic recount. A race is not final until the state certifies it.
When polls close on November 3
6 p.m. Eastern
Parts of Indiana and Kentucky
7 p.m.
Georgia, rest of Indiana and Kentucky, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
7:30 p.m.
North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
8 p.m.
Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Washington D.C.
9 p.m.
Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming
10 p.m.
Montana, Nevada, Utah
11 p.m.
California, Idaho, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington
Midnight and 1 a.m.
Hawaii at midnight, Alaska at 1 a.m. Wednesday
Some states close at different times in different parts of the state. Times are from Congress Countdown; confirm with your state election office.
Sources: Congress Countdown
When results become final
Certification is the official sign-off. Congress Countdown, drawing on Ballotpedia's calendar, lists these dates for states that decide control. For some states the date is the deadline to begin, not finish, the canvass, the official review of the count.
Nov 19
Minnesota
Nov 20
Georgia (federal and statewide races)
Nov 23
Arizona, Maine, Michigan
Nov 24
Nevada, North Carolina
Dec 1
Wisconsin
Dec 7
Texas
Dec 11
California
No fixed date
Pennsylvania
The court fight to watch
The Justice Department asked courts to stop California and Los Angeles County from counting ballots tied to a list of about 20,000 people it calls likely noncitizens. A federal appeals panel dismissed its emergency appeal 2 to 1 on October 26, and on October 28 Judge David Carter in Los Angeles rejected its request for a temporary restraining order, saying the method used to build the list was vague. The department can still prosecute individual noncitizens if it has evidence they voted illegally, according to ABC News, CBS News and Democracy Docket. Read our analysis of why the suit looks weak in court but can still do damage before November 3.
A Ballot Suit the Courts Are Unlikely to Grant Can Still Do Its Work
Minnesota and the Somali American vote
About 107,000 people of Somali descent lived in Minnesota in 2024, roughly 2 percent of the state, according to Census Bureau survey data reported by KTTC, and this year the state's races are among the most watched. In Minnesota's 5th District, which includes Minneapolis, Representative Ilhan Omar, born in Somalia and in 2018 the first Somali American elected to Congress, won the August 11 Democratic primary with 80.7 percent of the vote, according to unofficial results reported by Mshale. She faces Republican John Nagel on November 3.
Statewide, Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan (DFL, the state's Democratic party) faces former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya (R) for the open Senate seat of Tina Smith. For governor, Senator Amy Klobuchar (DFL) faces Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth (R), who beat the Trump-endorsed Mike Lindell in the Republican primary, according to an Associated Press call carried by NPR. Governor Tim Walz is not seeking a third term.
We have not found a reliable count of how many Somali Americans are registered to vote in Minnesota, and we do not estimate one. We will add an official figure if we find it. If you are a Somali American voter with a question about voting in Minnesota, tell us at pitches@thefieldreporters.com and we will try to answer it here.
Sources: Mshale on Omar's primary · NPR on the governor primary · Wikipedia on the Senate race · KTTC on Census data
How we will cover election night
From 6 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, November 3 (1 p.m. in Honolulu), this page will show a time-stamped update at least once an hour: which races have been called, by whom, and what is still being counted. Between updates, the stamp at the top of the page tells you when we last checked.
We will not call races. We will report calls made by the Associated Press and by the networks, say which organisation made each call, and link the state's official results. After the night we will follow recounts, lawsuits and certification here until control of both chambers is settled.
Everything here is attributed and dated. We do not call races ourselves. When a race is called we say who called it, usually the Associated Press, and link the official state results. Polls, forecasters and betting markets are different things and are labelled as such. If we have got something wrong, write to pitches@thefieldreporters.com and we will correct it on this page.